Now, you may be wondering why I have started this email rambling on about my vacation and sharing the most generic postcard photo you will ever find. Is it mostly because I like talking about myself? Yes, thanks for asking. But also because I thought this sunset photo was fitting for where we are at in the college football season. We are about to say goodbye to preseason predictions. Bid adieu to fall camp promises. Say adios to every copy and paste “Countdown to Kickoff” article. The college football season offseason is sunsetting and I couldn’t be more excited for what comes next.
Unfortunately, this also likely means sayonara to all our ill-conceived hopes of conference championships and playoff contention for our favorite teams. Unless you are sellouts like Christian and Zach who root for “good” football teams. Disgusting.
More importantly, this email serves as your reminder to complete your picks for the NCAA College Football Locks – 24/25 spreadsheet. Below is a quick FAQ for what you need to know:
When are my picks due?
You have until 12:00p EST this Saturday, August 24th to make your selections (Randy you have been warned.)
How much money do I owe you?
$20 if you would like to participate in the Winner Take All prize. You can venmo me @joshwrightstp13.
How in the world did Matt O'Reilly win last year?
No idea. The NCAA is looking into cheating allegations but Matt will likely be long gone before we get any sort of verdict.
Wow, I love the new locks gimmick! How'd you come up with it?
To be honest, I can’t take all the credit. Trevor Slack and I were brainstorming at a very productive lunch hour and he came up with the basis for the excellent idea. Hope y’all enjoy.
Stats are the best. Can't get enough of them. Do you have any from last season?
I certainly do! See the bottom portion of the email if you are curious about some high-level stats from last season. Maybe they will even persuade you to change some picks.
- Total Overall Picks: 864
- Total Correct Overall: 450 (52.1% of all picks)
- Total Overs Selected: 450 (52.1% of all picks)
- Total Overs Correct: 228 Correct (50.7% of Overs)
- Total Unders Selected: 414 (47.9% of all picks)
- 222 Correct – (53.6% of Unders)
- Conclusion: Vegas will not be hiring our squad but overall we were still batting above .500!
- Total Locks Picks: 132
- Total Correct Locks Overall: 57 (43.2% of all Locks)
- Total Over Locks Selected: 83 (62.9% of all Locks)
- Total Over Locks Correct: 37 (44.6% of Over Locks)
- Total Under Locks Selected: 49 (37.1% of all Locks)
- Total Under Locks Correct: 20 (40.8 % of all Under Locks)
- Conclusion: The more confident we were, the worse the result. We were significantly better on our non lock picks than our locks.
| Conference | Percent Correct |
|---|---|
|
ACC |
55.95 |
|
Big 12 |
51.19 |
|
Big Ten |
45.24 |
|
Pac 12 |
51.39 |
|
SEC |
55.36 |
|
Independent |
56.25 |
- Conclusion: We gotta step up our game in the Big Ten.
Winner’s Stats:
- Matt O: 48 out of 72 picks correct (66.7%)
- Conclusion: Clearly cheated.
- # of Teams whose win total ended within 1 win of their initial over/under: 31 (43.1%)
- # of Teams whose win total ended outside 1 win of their initial over/under: 41 (56.7%)
- Conclusion: There might actually be some value in adjusting your line for locks. Over half the teams would have hit last year.
- 35 Teams went over their initial over/under
- 37 Teams went over their initial over/under
- Conclusion: Classic Vegas. Almost a 50/50 split.
| Win Total | Over | Under | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.5 to 3.5 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
|
4.5 to 5.5 |
10 |
7 |
17 |
|
6.5 to 7.5 |
8 |
18 |
26 |
|
8.5 to 9.5 |
9 |
9 |
18 |
|
10.5 to 11.5 |
4 |
0
|
4 |
- Conclusion: If this chart tells us anything, it’s to go under on the middling teams and go over on the anticipated highest achievers.
