NCAA College Football Locks – 25/26 – Week 1

Hey gang! 
 
How was your college football appetizer? Good? Great. Nothing like a little Big 12 football to whet the palate. And for anyone who criticized the Iowa State v. Kansas State game based on the weather, sloppy play and numerous turnovers, I say this to you…
boo boo
Those young men flew all the way to Ireland to play football in a soccer stadium for fans who probably have no idea what a holding penalty is. (In fairness, I don’t know half of the time either.) Those players gave their heart and souls just to give a brief glimpse of what we have to look forward to this Fall. For that, I send them my warmest regards and appreciation forever more. 
 
Now, it’s on to the entree. Sure, Week 0 left some to be desired but you always want to leave a little meat on the bone before you get to the main course. (For the record, I do not leave meat on the bone. Cartilage and all is the way to go.) Week 1 has plenty to offer. We have QB debuts, Power 4 non-conference games, and some whopping top 10 matchups. Mmmmmm, yum! To get us meal-prepped before game day, I have a countdown of college football facts that you all can feast on. Bon appetit! 
chicken funny

College Football Countdown Stats

10

SEC teams ranked in the top 25

For those of you counting at home, that does mean there are only 6 teams outside of the top 25 in the SEC. Those would be Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt. Interestingly, I’ve heard more buzz about a potential Missouri CFB playoff run then some of the current top 25 SEC teams.

9

Weeks with at least 3 Top 25 matchups projected on the schedules

That’s great news for my Recommended Viewing Schedule!

8

New head coaches across teams listed on our spreadsheet

Most of you know about Bill Belichick at UNC, Rich Rodriguez making his triumphant anti-Tik Tok return to West Virginia and the devil formerly known as Scott Frost burrowing back down to UCF. You likely aren’t entirely surprised about Barry Odom at Purdue (Jake and Trevor, he might be okay!) or another new coach at UMass, Joe Harasymiak. And you might not care about Jake Dickert at Wake Forest or All-Generic Name 1st Team representative Jimmy Rogers at Washington State. But how about interim head coach Frank Reich at Stanford? He’s off to a hot start!

7

FBS teams that have never won a conference championship

Cannot recommend Winsipedia enough as a website. There’s a cheeky team on this list. I’ll give you a hint, their name rhymes with Notre Lame. 

6

Years since someone outside the SEC or Big Ten has won a championship

5

Teams with win totals of 10.5

Clemson. Ohio State. Oregon. Penn State. Notre Dame. Will be interesting to see who lives up to the hype.

4

Teams with 40+ outgoing transfers

This ain’t your grandpa’s college football no more. Player urnover after getting a new head coach is expected but this is bonkers. Below is the list of teams with the most transfers in reverse order.

North Carolina – 41 out vs. 42 in; West Virginia – 46 out vs 52 in; Washington State – 48 out vs 34 in; Purdue – 58 out vs 54 in

58 for Purdue? Insanity. Boiler up.

3

Active head coaches who have won a CFB championship

You know who they are. Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day. Anyone else have what it takes to join the club?

2

Starting true freshman QBs in Power 4

The obvious one is the 12.5 Million Dollar Michigan Man, Mr. Bryce Underwood. Rumor has it that his arm strength alone has helped Zach Snyder cope with the crushing NCAA punishments enforced on the Wolverines.

The less obvious one is transfer true freshman (yes, you read that right) Bear Bachmeier at BYU. After Jake Retzlaff left the program, Bear stepped in and has given BYU a Tier 1 name at QB. 

1

# of seasons Texas has opened #1 in the poll

Would not have guessed that. Hopefully it’s the last time as well!

The less obvious one is transfer true freshman (yes, you read that right) Bear Bachmeier at BYU. After Jake Retzlaff left the program, Bear stepped in and has given BYU a Tier 1 name at QB. 

Locks Preview w/Stats

Next, thanks everyone for getting your picks in on time! Luckily, there was not a single instance where someone woke up at 11:00a and had to rush to get in their picks by the deadline. There were two! Cheers to you Matt and Venky!
Due to everyone’s generous and required payment, the prize money this year is 400 big ones after a record breaking 20 entries were filled out! Yay for us! Per usual, I went ahead and did a deep dive into everyone’s selections and cherry picked some of my favorite stats. If you are curious, you can see a comprehensive view of all of the stats within the “Stats” tab spreadsheet.
  • Most Total Overs: Greg – 45 out of 71 total picks
    • Ahhh, ever so optimistic. This man is definitely drinking the Rhule-Aid.
  • Most Total Unders: Venky – 49 out of 71 total picks
    • My small sample size indicates that when you are rushed and fill out your picks in <10 min, you tend to hope for the downfall of others.
  • Mr. “High Risk High Reward”: Jaymin – 95 out of a possible 95 points
    • A ball knower, Jaymin has studied modern day NBA strategy and determined that unequivocally, irrevocably, and undeniably 3 points is worth more than 2.  
3>2
  • Mr. “Better Safe than Sorry”: John, Kunal and Michael – 85 out of a possible 95 points
    • When John found out you could adjust locks to be safer, he was ecstatic! John, let me remind you that no lock is truly safe. But let me also remind you that Kunal won last year with the same strategy so maybe it is safe. Not really sure yet the sample size is too small.
  • The “Texas Two Step” Award: Michael and Ryan – Texas – Under 
    • The only two people in our group to take the under on Texas! The only thing surprising about this duo is that Sam “Watch Me Swerve” Herkes did not make it a trio.
  • Most Popular “Under” Achiever: Florida State and UCF
    • Florida teams are so out. 80% of picks were on the under for these teams. No one, and I mean no one, roots for Florida State or the devil.
  • Most Popular Lock from Each Conference:
    • ACC: Georgia Tech – 8 (7 Over, 1 Under)
    • Big Ten: Indiana – 7 (7 Under)
    • Big 12: Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado – 4 (All varied)
    • SEC: Vanderbilt – 9 (9 Over)
    • Independent/PAC 12: Notre Dame – 12 (8 Over, 4 Under)
    • Vandy and GT overs being popular are no surprises here. Notre Dame being heavily selected out of the 4 independents is also no shocker. But I was a little surprised to see how many people have taken umbrage to Indiana and their colorful head coach Curt Cignetti.
  • Most Popular Lock of the Year: Georgia Tech
gt run
And now onto the best part of the week…

Josh Wright's Week 1 Recommend Viewing Schedule

Disclaimer: It will require a two tv setup.

Thursday, August 28th:

  • TV1: #25 Boise State @ USF – 5:30 on ESPN
    • How will the Broncos bounce back after losing Ashton Jeanty to the NFL? This should be a good one if you like points. 
  • TV2: Nebraska @ Cincinnati – 9:00p on ESPN
    • I believe DeShon Singleton said it best…
neb singleton
Friday, August 29th:
  • TV1: Auburn @ Baylor – 8:00p on FOX
    • These teams’ first meeting since 1976 will come with some huge expectations on both sides. Hugh Freeze needs a big year to solidify his support and Dave Aranda is hoping to build on a sneaky strong end to last season. 
  • TV2: Georgia Tech @ Colorado – 8:00p on ESPN
Saturday, August 30th:
  • TV1: #1 Texas @ #3 Ohio State – 12:00p on FOX
    • I’m naming this the “Who do you hate less?!” bowl sponsored by JPMorgan Chase. What a way to start the season. It’s not often we have a game on the first weekend that could be a preview of the National Championship game but here we are. I’m excited to hear everyone’s overreactions after this one. 
  • TV2: Syracuse @ #24 Tennessee – 12:00p on ABC
    • The “Orange” bowl. Potentially terrible aesthetically and also terrible from a play standpoint. The biggest storyline heading into the season for Tennessee is will they win the QB trade with UCLA?
  • “Flip the Channel” Game(s): Northwestern @ Tulane – 12:00p on ESPNU; Toledo @ Kentucky – 12:45p on SECN
    • I’ll take all the college football I can get. Plus Northwestern’s coach is in the running for most enthusiastic sideline coach. Must see TV.
northwestern coach
  • TV1: #13 Alabama @ Florida State – 3:30p on ABC
    • Trevor’s convinced that FSU covering a 13.5 point spread is a MUST BET. Thoughts from the group?
  • TV2: South Dakota @ #22 Iowa State – 3:30p on FOX
    • Yay for midwest football. 
  • “Flip the Channel” Game(s): Nevada @ #2 Penn State – 3:30p on CBS; Marshall @ #5 Georgia – 3:30p on ESPN; Montana State @ #7 Oregon – 4:00p on BTN
  • TV1: #9 LSU @ #4 Clemson – 7:30p on ABC
    • This is only the 5th meeting between these two teams and the 1st ever in the regular season. They also play again at LSU in 2026.
    • Proposal: If one team sweeps the home and home series this year and next, that team earns the right to keep the “Death Valley” nickname while the other team has to rebrand. 
clemson death valley
  • TV2: New Mexico @ #14 Michigan – 7:30p on NBC
    • Bryce Underwood’s debut. Suspiciously, Michigan would rather have their coach attend this game as opposed to the Nebraska game. What are they trying to insinuate?
  • “Flip the Channel” Game(s): UTEP @ Utah State – 7:30p on CBSSN
    • Former USC 5 Star and overall #1 recruit Malachi Nelson will finally have an opportunity at a starting role for the Miners this season. If he performs well this year, he may be on transfer watch soon. 
  • TV1: Utah @ UCLA – 11:00p on FOX
    • A sneaky good game late at night. Utah is looking for a bounceback year after moving on from the Cam Rising Saga and UCLA’s coach is out to prove that one bad press conference does not define a man. 
  • TV2: California @ Oregon State – 10:30p on ESPN
    • Football, football, football.
  • “Flip the Channel” Game(s): Colorado State @ Washington – 11:00p on BT
    • More football.
Sunday, August 31st:
  • TV1: Virginia Tech @ #13 South Carolina – 3:00p on ESPN
    • Some people (Logan) are calling this the game of the week. A few local pundits (still Logan) think this game will have major College Football Playbook ramifications. All I know is the two people most nervous about this game are Logan (after he drives to Tennessee to place his mortgage on VT money line) and Brent Pry (who hopes this doesn’t mark the beginning of the end of his time as a Hokie.)
  • TV1: #6 Notre Dame @ #10 Miami – 7:30p on ABC
    • If you like flashbacks to 1980s college football, you are gonna love the promos for this game. This game comes with plenty of its own historical baggage and modern day aspirations.
notre dame miami

Monday, September 1st:

  • TV1: TCU @ North Carolina – 8:00p on ESPN
    • Monday Night Football!